XRP’s (XRP) price was up 3% on Friday to trade above $1.40 as several technical and onchain indicators suggested it was due for a “significant” upward breakout.
Key takeaways:
XRP’s Bollinger Bands indicator now sees the potential for a massive price breakout.
XRP’s falling wedge pattern targets $2.55.
Declining exchange balances and persistent outflows indicate XRP accumulation.
XRP Bollinger Bands point at “significant” breakout
Bollinger Bands, a technical indicator used by traders to assess price momentum and volatility within a certain range, have reached their tightest point in eight months, signaling that volatility should be expected soon.
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The “daily XRP Bollinger Bands have slipped to their tightest level since July 2025,” analyst The Crypto Basic said in an X post on Thursday.
The XRP/USD pair surged about 60% in July 2025 to its multi-year high at $3.66, after breaking above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands.
“Tight Bollinger Bands often indicate lower volatility, and the breakout that follows could lead to an explosive run,” The Crypto Basic added.
Another analyst called this a preparation for a “significant breakout.”
XRP’s price continues to “consolidate within a symmetrical triangle structure with tightening Bollinger Bands and a stabilizing RSI,” fellow analyst XRP Update said, adding:
“This volatility compression suggests the market may be preparing for a significant breakout.”
XRP analyst Arthur said, with the Bollinger Bands tightening, a daily candlestick close above $1.50 “would confirm momentum.”
XRP falling wedge pattern targets $2.55
XRP price action is forming a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart, a structure typically associated with bullish reversals after a prolonged downtrend.
The price has been compressing between two descending trendlines since July 2025, with the lower boundary now acting as key support near the $1.30 psychological level.
Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI), on the weekly chart, is rebounding from oversold territory, indicating fading selling momentum.
Historically, similar RSI conditions have preceded strong rebounds in XRP. For example, XRP rallied as much as 85% between July and September 2022 following the RSI’s recovery from oversold conditions.
A confirmed breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline could open the way for a run toward the bullish target of the prevailing chart pattern at $2.55, 78.5% above the current price.
As Cointelegraph reported, bulls must break and sustain the XRP price above the $1.73-$2 supply zone to signal a long-term trend shift.
Declining supply on exchanges backs XRP’s upside
XRP supply on exchanges, or the total amount of coins held on exchange addresses, continues to fall, reflecting accumulation and long-term investor confidence.
The XRP balance on exchanges dropped to 12.8 billion on Friday, levels last seen in May 2021.
A reducing balance means fewer XRP tokens are available for sale, reducing sell-side pressure.
Such outflows typically indicate strong accumulation by large holders, who move funds to cold storage, reducing immediate sell-side pressure and increasing the chances of XRP’s short-term rebound.
However, XRP’s recovery could be delayed by continued redemption from spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have recorded outflows for five consecutive days, totalling $50.8 million.
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